Molloy College Business Professor Wins 2019 NBEA Best Paper Award
Dr. Robert Kissell, finance and quantitative analysis professor's paper titled, "Predictive Sports Analytics Using an Exponential Power Function," introduces a predictive sports analytics model that can be used to (1) rank teams, (2) estimate win probability, (3) calculate the expected winning spread of a game, and (4) calculate the probability that the team will beat a sports betting line such as the Vegas spread. The model is based on an exponential distribution function and is solved using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) and a log-likelihood function. The model also incorporates a home field advantage parameter for improved results. The most appealing aspect of this quantitative approach is that the model is objective, transparent and testable. Readers can verify all calculations and results from the model. We apply this model to the 2018-2019 NFL season to rank teams, estimate scores, and make predictions across all pairs of NFL teams. The model predicted more than 70% of the NFL games correct and has a goodness fit of when comparing estimated spread to actual spread. This modeling approach can serve as an objective framework to assist committees in determining which teams should be selected for college post season tournaments such as the NCAA basketball tournament and the College Football Playoffs.
The Northeast Business & Economics Association (NBEA) was founded in 1973. Its purpose is to promote multidisciplinary research pertaining to business and economics; and to improve communications and exchange of research, both applied and theoretical, among all interested parties.